Matchday 31 · Premier League 2025-26 · March 21, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Brighton 2–1 Liverpool: lucky or expected?
Brighton beat Liverpool 2–1, but the goals call it even: Brighton win 4 of 10, Liverpool 3, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Brighton were expected to score 1.5 here and Liverpool 1.3.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Brighton & Hove Albion | 2 |
 Liverpool | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +46 Brighton lucky · −46 Liverpool
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Brighton win 4, 3 end level, Liverpool win 3.
- 1 BHA 1 LIV 0
- 2 BHA 2 LIV 1
- 3 BHA 3 LIV 1
- 4 BHA 3 LIV 0
- 5 BHA 2 LIV 2
- 6 BHA 0 LIV 0
- 7 BHA 0 LIV 0
- 8 BHA 2 LIV 4
- 9 BHA 1 LIV 2
- 10 BHA 2 LIV 3
The goals
Brighton’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 14' | Danny Welbeck (Brighton) | 1–0 | +23% Brighton |
| 2. 30' | Milos Kerkez (Liverpool) | 1–1 | +26% Liverpool |
| 3. 56' | Danny Welbeck (Brighton) | 2–1 | +32% Brighton |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Brighton win 54% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 31, 2025-26
- Wolves 2–2 Arsenal Feb 18, 2026 · drawn; replay 19% draws
- Bournemouth 2–2 Man United Mar 20, 2026 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Fulham 3–1 Burnley Mar 21, 2026 · replay 73% for Fulham
- Everton 3–0 Chelsea Mar 21, 2026 · replay 52% for Everton
- Leeds 0–0 Brentford Mar 21, 2026 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Newcastle 1–2 Sunderland Mar 22, 2026 · replay 42% for Sunderland
- Tottenham 0–3 Forest Mar 22, 2026 · replay 45% for Forest
- Aston Villa 2–0 West Ham Mar 22, 2026 · replay 69% for Aston Villa
- Man City 3–0 Crystal Palace May 13, 2026 · replay 82% for Man City