Matchday 31 · Premier League 2025-26 · May 13, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Man City 3–0 Crystal Palace: lucky or expected?
Man City beat Crystal Palace 3–0, and the goals back it up: from both teams’ goals this season, Man City win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Man City were expected to score 2.1 here and Crystal Palace 0.5.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Manchester City | 3 |
 Crystal Palace | 0 |
What the goals say
Luck index +18 Man City about even · −18 Crystal Palace
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Man City win 7, 2 end level, Crystal Palace win 1.
- 1 MCI 2 CRY 1
- 2 MCI 1 CRY 0
- 3 MCI 3 CRY 1
- 4 MCI 4 CRY 2
- 5 MCI 3 CRY 0
- 6 MCI 3 CRY 0
- 7 MCI 5 CRY 0
- 8 MCI 1 CRY 1
- 9 MCI 1 CRY 1
- 10 MCI 0 CRY 1
The goals
Man City’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 32' | Antoine Semenyo (Man City) | 1–0 | +26% Man City |
| 2. 40' | Omar Marmoush (Man City) | 2–0 | +13% Man City |
| 3. 84' | Savinho (Man City) | 3–0 | +0% Man City |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Man City win 82% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 31 matches, 2025-26 · 
Man City · 
Crystal Palace
More from matchday 31, 2025-26
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- Bournemouth 2–2 Man United Mar 20, 2026 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Brighton 2–1 Liverpool Mar 21, 2026 · replay 54% for Brighton
- Fulham 3–1 Burnley Mar 21, 2026 · replay 73% for Fulham
- Everton 3–0 Chelsea Mar 21, 2026 · replay 52% for Everton
- Leeds 0–0 Brentford Mar 21, 2026 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Newcastle 1–2 Sunderland Mar 22, 2026 · replay 42% for Sunderland
- Tottenham 0–3 Forest Mar 22, 2026 · replay 45% for Forest
- Aston Villa 2–0 West Ham Mar 22, 2026 · replay 69% for Aston Villa