Matchday 32 · Premier League 2025-26 · April 12, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Forest 1–1 Aston Villa: lucky or expected?
Forest and Aston Villa drew 1–1. Replayed from both teams’ goals this season, Forest win 4 of 10, Aston Villa 3, and 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Forest were expected to score 1.3 here and Aston Villa 1.3. An own goal helped Aston Villa.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Nottingham Forest | 1 |
 Aston Villa | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index −1 Forest about even for the draw
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Forest win 4, 3 end level, Aston Villa win 3.
- 1 NFO 1 AVL 0
- 2 NFO 2 AVL 1
- 3 NFO 2 AVL 0
- 4 NFO 3 AVL 0
- 5 NFO 0 AVL 0
- 6 NFO 1 AVL 1
- 7 NFO 1 AVL 1
- 8 NFO 0 AVL 2
- 9 NFO 2 AVL 3
- 10 NFO 1 AVL 2
The goals
Forest’s chance of winning
As low as 25% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 23' | Murillo (Aston Villa, own goal) | 0–1 | +27% Aston Villa |
| 2. 38' | Neco Williams (Forest) | 1–1 | +30% Forest |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.
More from matchday 32, 2025-26
- West Ham 4–0 Wolves Apr 10, 2026 · replay 67% for West Ham
- Arsenal 1–2 Bournemouth Apr 11, 2026 · replay 25% for Bournemouth
- Burnley 0–2 Brighton Apr 11, 2026 · replay 66% for Brighton
- Brentford 2–2 Everton Apr 11, 2026 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Liverpool 2–0 Fulham Apr 11, 2026 · replay 64% for Liverpool
- Crystal Palace 2–1 Newcastle Apr 12, 2026 · replay 52% for Crystal Palace
- Sunderland 1–0 Tottenham Apr 12, 2026 · replay 60% for Sunderland
- Chelsea 0–3 Man City Apr 12, 2026 · replay 62% for Man City
- Man United 1–2 Leeds Apr 13, 2026 · replay 32% for Leeds