Matchday 32 · Premier League 2025-26 · April 13, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Man United 1–2 Leeds: lucky or expected?
Leeds beat Man United 2–1, but the goals lean toward Man United: 6 wins in 10 to Leeds’s 2, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Man United were expected to score 2.0 here and Leeds 1.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Manchester United | 1 |
 Leeds United | 2 |
What the goals say
Luck index +68 Leeds very lucky · −68 Man United
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Man United win 6, 2 end level, Leeds win 2.
- 1 MUN 1 LEE 0
- 2 MUN 1 LEE 0
- 3 MUN 1 LEE 0
- 4 MUN 2 LEE 0
- 5 MUN 3 LEE 0
- 6 MUN 4 LEE 0
- 7 MUN 3 LEE 3
- 8 MUN 1 LEE 1
- 9 MUN 1 LEE 3
- 10 MUN 1 LEE 2
The goals
Man United’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 5' | Noah Okafor (Leeds) | 0–1 | +24% Leeds |
| 2. 29' | Noah Okafor (Leeds) | 0–2 | +17% Leeds |
| 3. 69' | Casemiro (Man United) | 1–2 | +12% Man United |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Leeds win 32% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 32, 2025-26
- West Ham 4–0 Wolves Apr 10, 2026 · replay 67% for West Ham
- Arsenal 1–2 Bournemouth Apr 11, 2026 · replay 25% for Bournemouth
- Burnley 0–2 Brighton Apr 11, 2026 · replay 66% for Brighton
- Brentford 2–2 Everton Apr 11, 2026 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Liverpool 2–0 Fulham Apr 11, 2026 · replay 64% for Liverpool
- Crystal Palace 2–1 Newcastle Apr 12, 2026 · replay 52% for Crystal Palace
- Forest 1–1 Aston Villa Apr 12, 2026 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Sunderland 1–0 Tottenham Apr 12, 2026 · replay 60% for Sunderland
- Chelsea 0–3 Man City Apr 12, 2026 · replay 62% for Man City