Matchday 37 · Premier League 2025-26 · May 17, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Newcastle 3–1 West Ham: lucky or expected?
Newcastle beat West Ham 3–1, and the goals lean Newcastle’s way: 5 wins in 10, 3 for West Ham, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Newcastle were expected to score 1.9 here and West Ham 1.2.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Newcastle United | 3 |
 West Ham United | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +35 Newcastle lucky · −35 West Ham
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Newcastle win 5, 2 end level, West Ham win 3.
- 1 NEW 2 WHU 1
- 2 NEW 1 WHU 0
- 3 NEW 3 WHU 1
- 4 NEW 2 WHU 0
- 5 NEW 4 WHU 0
- 6 NEW 0 WHU 0
- 7 NEW 1 WHU 1
- 8 NEW 1 WHU 3
- 9 NEW 1 WHU 2
- 10 NEW 0 WHU 1
The goals
Newcastle’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 15' | Nick Woltemade (Newcastle) | 1–0 | +23% Newcastle |
| 2. 19' | William Osula (Newcastle) | 2–0 | +13% Newcastle |
| 3. 65' | William Osula (Newcastle) | 3–0 | +2% Newcastle |
| 4. 69' | Valentin Castellanos (West Ham) | 3–1 | +1% West Ham |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Newcastle win 65% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 37, 2025-26
- Aston Villa 4–2 Liverpool May 15, 2026 · replay 54% for Aston Villa
- Man United 3–2 Forest May 17, 2026 · replay 69% for Man United
- Brentford 2–2 Crystal Palace May 17, 2026 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Wolves 1–1 Fulham May 17, 2026 · drawn; replay 29% draws
- Everton 1–3 Sunderland May 17, 2026 · replay 42% for Sunderland
- Leeds 1–0 Brighton May 17, 2026 · replay 51% for Leeds
- Arsenal 1–0 Burnley May 18, 2026 · replay 91% for Arsenal
- Bournemouth 1–1 Man City May 19, 2026 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Chelsea 2–1 Tottenham May 19, 2026 · replay 64% for Chelsea