Matchday 37 · Premier League 2025-26 · May 18, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Arsenal 1–0 Burnley: lucky or expected?
Arsenal beat Burnley 1–0, and the goals back it up: from both teams’ goals this season, Arsenal win 8 of 10, 1 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Arsenal were expected to score 2.5 here and Burnley 0.3.
What the goals say
Luck index +10 Arsenal about even · −10 Burnley
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Arsenal win 8, 1 ends level, Burnley win 1.
- 1 ARS 1 BUR 0
- 2 ARS 1 BUR 0
- 3 ARS 3 BUR 1
- 4 ARS 3 BUR 1
- 5 ARS 3 BUR 0
- 6 ARS 3 BUR 0
- 7 ARS 4 BUR 0
- 8 ARS 5 BUR 0
- 9 ARS 1 BUR 1
- 10 ARS 0 BUR 1
The goals
Arsenal’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 37' | Kai Havertz (Arsenal) | 1–0 | +27% Arsenal |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Arsenal win 91% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 37, 2025-26
- Aston Villa 4–2 Liverpool May 15, 2026 · replay 54% for Aston Villa
- Man United 3–2 Forest May 17, 2026 · replay 69% for Man United
- Brentford 2–2 Crystal Palace May 17, 2026 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Wolves 1–1 Fulham May 17, 2026 · drawn; replay 29% draws
- Everton 1–3 Sunderland May 17, 2026 · replay 42% for Sunderland
- Leeds 1–0 Brighton May 17, 2026 · replay 51% for Leeds
- Newcastle 3–1 West Ham May 17, 2026 · replay 65% for Newcastle
- Bournemouth 1–1 Man City May 19, 2026 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Chelsea 2–1 Tottenham May 19, 2026 · replay 64% for Chelsea