Matchday 38 · Premier League 2025-26 · May 24, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Man City 1–2 Aston Villa: lucky or expected?
Aston Villa beat Man City 2–1, but the goals lean toward Man City: 6 wins in 10 to Aston Villa’s 2, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Man City were expected to score 2.0 here and Aston Villa 0.9.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Manchester City | 1 |
 Aston Villa | 2 |
What the goals say
Luck index +73 Aston Villa very lucky · −73 Man City
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Man City win 6, 2 end level, Aston Villa win 2.
- 1 MCI 1 AVL 0
- 2 MCI 2 AVL 1
- 3 MCI 2 AVL 0
- 4 MCI 2 AVL 0
- 5 MCI 3 AVL 0
- 6 MCI 4 AVL 0
- 7 MCI 1 AVL 1
- 8 MCI 1 AVL 1
- 9 MCI 0 AVL 2
- 10 MCI 0 AVL 1
The goals
Man City’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 84%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 23' | Antoine Semenyo (Man City) | 1–0 | +25% Man City |
| 2. 47' | Ollie Watkins (Aston Villa) | 1–1 | +29% Aston Villa |
| 3. 61' | Ollie Watkins (Aston Villa) | 1–2 | +36% Aston Villa |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Aston Villa win 27% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 38, 2025-26
- Sunderland 2–1 Chelsea May 24, 2026 · replay 52% for Sunderland
- Forest 1–1 Bournemouth May 24, 2026 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Brighton 0–3 Man United May 24, 2026 · replay 50% for Man United
- Liverpool 1–1 Brentford May 24, 2026 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Crystal Palace 1–2 Arsenal May 24, 2026 · replay 72% for Arsenal
- Fulham 2–0 Newcastle May 24, 2026 · replay 56% for Fulham
- West Ham 3–0 Leeds May 24, 2026 · replay 49% for West Ham
- Tottenham 1–0 Everton May 24, 2026 · replay 54% for Tottenham
- Burnley 1–1 Wolves May 24, 2026 · drawn; replay 27% draws