Matchday 1 · Premier League 2026-27 · August 22, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Hull 2–0 Man United: lucky or expected?
Hull beat Man United 2–0, and the goals lean Hull’s way: 4 wins in 10, 3 for Man United, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Hull were expected to score 1.3 here and Man United 0.9.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Hull City | 2 |
 Manchester United | 0 |
What the goals say
Luck index +41 Hull lucky · −41 Man United
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Hull win 4, 3 end level, Man United win 3.
- 1 HUL 2 MUN 1
- 2 HUL 2 MUN 1
- 3 HUL 2 MUN 0
- 4 HUL 3 MUN 0
- 5 HUL 2 MUN 2
- 6 HUL 1 MUN 1
- 7 HUL 0 MUN 0
- 8 HUL 0 MUN 2
- 9 HUL 0 MUN 1
- 10 HUL 1 MUN 2
Our prediction before kickoff
We had Man United 51% to win, 25% for a draw, Hull 24%. Hull won, a result we gave 24%. The final margin was 2.6 goals from ours; 8% of matches like this end further from the forecast than that.
Before kickoff
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: even with both clubs’ strength known exactly, a few shots decide a soccer match. This match was played before our forecasts went live, so this one was made afterwards, the same way, from only what was known before kickoff. How our predictions have done
The goals
Our source lists this match’s score but not who scored or when, so there is no timeline of it. The replay above needs only the score.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Hull win 59% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 1, 2026-27
- Arsenal 3–0 Coventry Aug 21, 2026 · replay 84% for Arsenal
- Ipswich 2–1 Sunderland Aug 22, 2026 · replay 47% for Ipswich
- Forest 0–1 Leeds Aug 22, 2026 · replay 78% for Leeds
- Everton 2–0 Crystal Palace Aug 22, 2026 · replay 71% for Everton
- Brentford 3–0 Tottenham Aug 22, 2026 · replay 90% for Brentford
- Man City 2–1 Bournemouth Aug 23, 2026 · replay 73% for Man City
- Brighton 4–0 Aston Villa Aug 23, 2026 · replay 83% for Brighton
- Newcastle 2–2 Liverpool Aug 23, 2026 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Fulham 2–3 Chelsea Aug 24, 2026 · replay 62% for Chelsea