luckadjusted
Premier League Matchday 5 · 2026-27

Matchday 1 · Premier League 2026-27 · August 22, 2026

Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.

Everton 2–0 Crystal Palace: lucky or expected?

Everton beat Crystal Palace 2–0, and the goals lean Everton’s way: 6 wins in 10, 1 for Crystal Palace, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Everton were expected to score 1.7 here and Crystal Palace 0.8.

Full time

Goals
Everton 2
Crystal Palace 0

August 22, 2026

Our prediction before kickoff: Everton win 45%

Luck index +29 Everton lucky · −29 Crystal Palace

Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works

Ten replays. Everton win 6, 3 end level, Crystal Palace win 1.

  1. 1 EVE 1 CRY 0
  2. 2 EVE 2 CRY 1
  3. 3 EVE 2 CRY 1
  4. 4 EVE 3 CRY 1
  5. 5 EVE 3 CRY 0
  6. 6 EVE 3 CRY 0
  7. 7 EVE 1 CRY 1
  8. 8 EVE 0 CRY 0
  9. 9 EVE 2 CRY 2
  10. 10 EVE 0 CRY 1

Our prediction before kickoff

We had Everton 45% to win, 28% for a draw, Crystal Palace 27%. Everton won: the pick was right. The final margin was 1.6 goals from ours; 18% of matches like this end further from the forecast than that.

Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: even with both clubs’ strength known exactly, a few shots decide a soccer match. This match was played before our forecasts went live, so this one was made afterwards, the same way, from only what was known before kickoff. How our predictions have done

The goals

Our source lists this match’s score but not who scored or when, so there is no timeline of it. The replay above needs only the score.

About these numbers

Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Everton win 71% of replays (a draw counted as half).

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