Quarter-finals · World Cup 2018 · July 6, 2018
Uruguay 0–2 France: who deserved to win?
France beat Uruguay 2–0, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: France go through 5 times in 10. The chances were close to even (0.7 expected goals to 0.5).
Replay with same day's form: who goes through
Luck index +51 France lucky · −51 Uruguay
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance, a level 90 minutes going to extra time and then penalties as a coin flip: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays of the 90 minutes. Uruguay win 3, 4 end level, France win 3.
- 1 URU 1 FRA 0
- 2 URU 1 FRA 0
- 3 URU 2 FRA 0
- 4 URU 1 FRA 1
- 5 URU 0 FRA 0
- 6 URU 0 FRA 0
- 7 URU 2 FRA 2
- 8 URU 0 FRA 2
- 9 URU 0 FRA 1
- 10 URU 0 FRA 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate. Shown for the 90 minutes.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Uruguay win 30%, 39% end level, France win 31%. The line is what actually happened: France by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Uruguay by 3+ | 2.1% |
| Uruguay by 2 | 6.9% |
| Uruguay by 1 | 21.0% |
| Draw | 39.1% |
| France by 1 | 22.6% |
| France by 2 | 6.7% |
| France by 3+ | 1.7% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Uruguay | 10 | 0 | 0.69 | −0.69 |
 France | 11 | 2 | 0.54 | +1.46 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 39' | Raphaël Varane scored from a shot | 0.13 |
| 60' | Antoine Griezmann scored from a shot | 0.01 |
When it happened
Uruguay’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10' | Raphaël Varane didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% URU |
| 2 | 13' | José María Giménez de Vargas didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% FRA |
| 3 | 14' | Kylian Mbappé Lottin didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +4% URU |
| 4 | 34' | Matías Vecino Falero didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +5% FRA |
| 5 | 39' | Raphaël Varane scored from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +26% FRA |
| 6 | 43' | José Martín Cáceres Silva didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% FRA |
| 7 | 43' | Diego Roberto Godín Leal didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +6% FRA |
| 8 | 60' | Antoine Griezmann scored from a shotFinishing · 1% chance | +12% FRA |
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). France go through in 49% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from quarter-finals, 2018
- Brazil 1–2 Belgium Jul 6, 2018 · replay 13% for Belgium
- Sweden 0–2 England Jul 7, 2018 · replay 61% for England
- Russia 2–2 Croatia Jul 7, 2018 · pens · replay 76% for Croatia