Quarter-finals · World Cup 2018 · July 7, 2018

Sweden 0–2 England: who deserved to win?

England beat Sweden 2–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, England go through 6 times in 10. The chances were close to even (0.8 expected goals to 0.8).

Full time

Team	Goals	xG
Sweden	0	0.83
England	2	0.76

July 7, 2018 · Solidarnost Arena · Referee: Björn Kuipers

Replay with same day's form: who goes through

Luck index +40 England lucky · −40 Sweden

Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance, a level 90 minutes going to extra time and then penalties as a coin flip: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays of the 90 minutes. Sweden win 2, 3 end level, England win 5.

1 SWE 1 ENG 0
2 SWE 2 ENG 0
3 SWE 0 ENG 0
4 SWE 0 ENG 0
5 SWE 0 ENG 0
6 SWE 0 ENG 3
7 SWE 1 ENG 3
8 SWE 1 ENG 2
9 SWE 0 ENG 1
10 SWE 0 ENG 1

The narrowest view of luck

The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate. Shown for the 90 minutes.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.

How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended

Sweden win 22%, 32% end level, England win 45%. The line is what actually happened: England by 2.

Actual: England by 2 4321Draw1234 ← Sweden win by England win by →

Show as a table

After 90 minutes in the replays	Share of replays
Sweden by 3+	0.9%
Sweden by 2	4.5%
Sweden by 1	17.1%
Draw	32.4%
England by 1	27.7%
England by 2	12.4%
England by 3+	5.1%

Where the luck was

Finishing	Shots	Goals	Expected goals	Above expected
Sweden	8	0	0.83	−0.83
England	12	2	0.76	+1.24

Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

The big chances, and every goal

Minute	Chance	xG
29'	Harry Maguire scored from a shot	0.06
58'	Bamidele Alli scored from a shot	0.14

When it happened

Sweden’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Sweden 50% England 1st half2nd half 1234578

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Sweden was ahead in it, below while England was.

#	When	What happened	Win probability for
1	18'	Harry Kane didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance	+1% SWE
2	29'	Harry Maguire scored from a shotFinishing · 6% chance	+26% ENG
3	44'	Raheem Sterling didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance	+2% SWE
4	46'	Marcus Berg didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance	+3% ENG
5	58'	Bamidele Alli scored from a shotFinishing · 14% chance	+11% ENG
6	61'	Viktor Claesson didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance	+2% ENG
7	61'	Viktor Claesson didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance	+3% ENG
8	70'	Marcus Berg didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance	+2% ENG

About these numbers

Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). England go through in 61% of replays (a draw counted as half).

All quarter-finals matches, 2018 · Sweden · England