Quarter-finals · World Cup 2018 · July 6, 2018

Brazil 1–2 Belgium: who deserved to win?

Belgium beat Brazil 2–1, but the replays send Brazil through 9 times in 10. Brazil made the better chances: 2.6 expected goals to 0.4. An own goal helped Belgium.

Full time

Team	Goals	xG
Brazil	1	2.61
Belgium	2	0.41

July 6, 2018 · Ak Bars Arena · Referee: Milorad Mažić

Replay with same day's form: who goes through

Luck index +87 Belgium very lucky · −87 Brazil

Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance, a level 90 minutes going to extra time and then penalties as a coin flip: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays of the 90 minutes. Brazil win 7, 2 end level, Belgium win 1.

1 BRA 1 BEL 0
2 BRA 1 BEL 0
3 BRA 2 BEL 0
4 BRA 2 BEL 0
5 BRA 3 BEL 0
6 BRA 3 BEL 0
7 BRA 6 BEL 2
8 BRA 1 BEL 1
9 BRA 0 BEL 0
10 BRA 0 BEL 1

The narrowest view of luck

The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate. Shown for the 90 minutes.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.

How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended

Brazil win 75%, 17% end level, Belgium win 8%. The line is what actually happened: Belgium by 1.

Actual: Belgium by 1 654321Draw123456 ← Brazil win by Belgium win by →

Show as a table

After 90 minutes in the replays	Share of replays
Brazil by 3+	26.9%
Brazil by 2	22.7%
Brazil by 1	25.2%
Draw	16.9%
Belgium by 1	6.8%
Belgium by 2	1.4%
Belgium by 3+	0.1%

Where the luck was

Finishing	Shots	Goals	Expected goals	Above expected
Brazil	25	1	2.61	−1.61
Belgium	8	1	0.41	+0.59

Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

The big chances, and every goal

Minute	Chance	xG
30'	Kevin De Bruyne scored from a shot	0.04
75'	Renato Soares de Oliveira Augusto scored from a shot	0.23

When it happened

Brazil’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Brazil 50% Belgium 1st half2nd half 12345678

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Brazil was ahead in it, below while Belgium was.

#	When	What happened	Win probability for
1	7'	Thiago Emiliano da Silva didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 27% chance	+7% BEL
2	12'	Own goal by nan, for BelgiumOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full	+24% BEL
3	14'	Gabriel Fernando de Jesus didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 28% chance	+7% BEL
4	30'	Kevin De Bruyne scored from a shotFinishing · 4% chance	+15% BEL
5	75'	Renato Soares de Oliveira Augusto scored from a shotFinishing · 23% chance	+6% BRA
6	80'	Renato Soares de Oliveira Augusto didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance	+6% BEL
7	83'	Philippe Coutinho Correia didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance	+7% BEL
8	93'	Roberto Firmino Barbosa de Oliveira didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 26% chance	+13% BEL

About these numbers

Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Belgium go through in 13% of replays (a draw counted as half).

All quarter-finals matches, 2018 · Brazil · Belgium