luckadjusted
World Cup Final · 2026

Quarter-finals · World Cup 2018 · July 7, 2018 · pens

Russia 2–2 Croatia: who deserved to win?

Croatia went through on penalties after 2–2, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Croatia go through 8 times in 10. Croatia made the better chances: 1.6 expected goals to 1.1.

Full time · won on penalties

GoalsxG
Russia 2 1.07
Croatia 2 1.65

July 7, 2018 · Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht · Referee: Sandro Ricci

Luck index +25 Croatia about even · −25 Russia

Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance, a level 90 minutes going to extra time and then penalties as a coin flip: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays of the 90 minutes. Russia win 1, 3 end level, Croatia win 6.

  1. 1 RUS 1 CRO 0
  2. 2 RUS 1 CRO 1
  3. 3 RUS 0 CRO 0
  4. 4 RUS 3 CRO 3
  5. 5 RUS 0 CRO 4
  6. 6 RUS 0 CRO 2
  7. 7 RUS 1 CRO 3
  8. 8 RUS 2 CRO 3
  9. 9 RUS 0 CRO 1
  10. 10 RUS 0 CRO 1

The narrowest view of luck

The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate. Shown for the 90 minutes.

There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.

How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended

Russia win 14%, 27% end level, Croatia win 59%. The line is what actually happened: Draw after 90 minutes.

Show as a table
After 90 minutes in the replaysShare of replays
Russia by 3+0.5%
Russia by 22.9%
Russia by 110.7%
Draw27.2%
Croatia by 128.1%
Croatia by 218.1%
Croatia by 3+12.5%

Where the luck was

FinishingShotsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Russia1321.07+0.93
Croatia1821.65+0.35

Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

The big chances, and every goal

MinuteChancexG
30'Denis Cheryshev scored from a shot0.05
38'Andrej Kramarić scored from a shot0.27
100'Domagoj Vida scored from a shot0.11
114'Mário Figueira Fernandes scored from a shot0.24

When it happened

Russia’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 79%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Russia was ahead in it, below while Croatia was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability for
1 6' Ante Rebić didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 26% chance +6% RUS
2 30' Denis Cheryshev scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance +26% RUS
3 38' Andrej Kramarić scored from a shotFinishing · 27% chance +21% CRO
4 71' Aleksandr Erokhin didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance +7% CRO
5 ET 100' Domagoj Vida scored from a shotFinishing · 11% chance +35% CRO
6 ET 103' Ilya Kutepov didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance +7% CRO
7 ET 114' Mário Figueira Fernandes scored from a shotFinishing · 24% chance +35% RUS
8 Pens 120' Croatia won the penalty shootoutShootout · shootouts are close to coin flips +50% CRO

About these numbers

Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). This tie went to penalties: after 90 minutes it stood 1–1. Croatia go through in 76% of replays (a draw counted as half).

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