Matchday 1 · World Cup 2026 · June 17, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
England 4–2 Croatia: lucky or expected?
England beat Croatia 4–2, and the goals lean England’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Croatia, 2 end level. Rated on this tournament’s goals, England were expected to score 2.9 here and Croatia 1.7.
What the goals say
Luck index +30 England lucky · −30 Croatia
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the tournament say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. England win 6, 2 end level, Croatia win 2.
- 1 ENG 3 CRO 2
- 2 ENG 7 CRO 6
- 3 ENG 6 CRO 4
- 4 ENG 4 CRO 1
- 5 ENG 4 CRO 1
- 6 ENG 6 CRO 1
- 7 ENG 4 CRO 4
- 8 ENG 1 CRO 1
- 9 ENG 4 CRO 6
- 10 ENG 3 CRO 4
The goals
England’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 12' | Harry Kane (England, penalty) | 1–0 | +24% England |
| 2. 36' | Martin Baturina (Croatia) | 1–1 | +28% Croatia |
| 3. 42' | Harry Kane (England) | 2–1 | +29% England |
| 4. 45+5' | Petar Musa (Croatia) | 2–2 | +14% Croatia |
| 5. 47' | Jude Bellingham (England) | 3–2 | +14% England |
| 6. 85' | Marcus Rashford (England) | 4–2 | +4% England |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the tournament’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. England win 70% of replays (a draw counted as half).
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