Matchday 2 · World Cup 2026 · June 18, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Czech Republic 1–1 South Africa: lucky or expected?
Czech Republic and South Africa drew 1–1. Replayed from both teams’ goals this tournament, Czech Republic win 2 of 10, South Africa 5, and 3 end level. Rated on this tournament’s goals, Czech Republic were expected to score 0.8 here and South Africa 1.3.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Czech Republic | 1 |
 South Africa | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +12 Czech Republic about even for the draw
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the tournament say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Czech Republic win 2, 3 end level, South Africa win 5.
- 1 CZE 1 RSA 0
- 2 CZE 3 RSA 1
- 3 CZE 0 RSA 0
- 4 CZE 0 RSA 0
- 5 CZE 1 RSA 1
- 6 CZE 0 RSA 3
- 7 CZE 0 RSA 2
- 8 CZE 0 RSA 1
- 9 CZE 2 RSA 3
- 10 CZE 1 RSA 2
The goals
Czech Republic’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 6' | Michal Sadílek (Czech Republic) | 1–0 | +23% Czech Republic |
| 2. 83' | Teboho Mokoena (South Africa, penalty) | 1–1 | +45% South Africa |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the tournament’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.
All matchday 2 matches, 2026 · 
Czech Republic · 
South Africa
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