luckadjusted
World Cup Final · 2026

Matchday 2 · World Cup 2026 · June 18, 2026

Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.

Switzerland 4–1 Bosnia and Herzegovina: lucky or expected?

Switzerland beat Bosnia and Herzegovina 4–1, and the goals back it up: from both teams’ goals this tournament, Switzerland win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Rated on this tournament’s goals, Switzerland were expected to score 1.9 here and Bosnia and Herzegovina 0.5.

Full time

Goals
Switzerland 4
Bosnia and Herzegovina 1

June 18, 2026

Luck index +19 Switzerland about even · −19 Bosnia and Herzegovina

Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the tournament say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works

Ten replays. Switzerland win 7, 2 end level, Bosnia and Herzegovina win 1.

  1. 1 SUI 1 BIH 0
  2. 2 SUI 2 BIH 1
  3. 3 SUI 3 BIH 1
  4. 4 SUI 2 BIH 0
  5. 5 SUI 3 BIH 1
  6. 6 SUI 3 BIH 0
  7. 7 SUI 4 BIH 0
  8. 8 SUI 1 BIH 1
  9. 9 SUI 1 BIH 1
  10. 10 SUI 1 BIH 2

The goals

Switzerland’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the goals, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Switzerland was ahead in it, below while Bosnia and Herzegovina was.
MinuteGoalScoreWin chance
1. 74' Johan Manzambi (Switzerland) 1–0 +40% Switzerland
2. 84' Rubén Vargas (Switzerland) 2–0 +4% Switzerland
3. 90' Johan Manzambi (Switzerland) 3–0 +0% Switzerland
90+3' Ermin Mahmic (Bosnia and Herzegovina) 3–1
90+7' Granit Xhaka (Switzerland, penalty) 4–1

Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.

About these numbers

Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the tournament’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Switzerland win 81% of replays (a draw counted as half).

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