Matchday 2 · World Cup 2026 · June 20, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Germany 2–1 Ivory Coast: lucky or expected?
Germany beat Ivory Coast 2–1, but the goals call it even: Germany win 4 of 10, Ivory Coast 4, 2 end level. Rated on this tournament’s goals, Germany were expected to score 1.9 here and Ivory Coast 1.7.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Germany | 2 |
 Ivory Coast | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +47 Germany lucky · −47 Ivory Coast
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the tournament say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Germany win 4, 2 end level, Ivory Coast win 4.
- 1 GER 3 CIV 2
- 2 GER 1 CIV 0
- 3 GER 2 CIV 0
- 4 GER 4 CIV 1
- 5 GER 1 CIV 1
- 6 GER 2 CIV 2
- 7 GER 3 CIV 6
- 8 GER 1 CIV 3
- 9 GER 1 CIV 2
- 10 GER 0 CIV 1
The goals
Germany’s chance of winning
As low as 13% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 30' | Franck Kessié (Ivory Coast) | 0–1 | +27% Ivory Coast |
| 2. 68' | Deniz Undav (Germany) | 1–1 | +37% Germany |
| 90+4' | Deniz Undav (Germany) | 2–1 |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the tournament’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Germany win 53% of replays (a draw counted as half).
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