luckadjusted
World Cup Final · 2026

Matchday 2 · World Cup 2026 · June 20, 2026

Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.

Netherlands 5–1 Sweden: lucky or expected?

Netherlands beat Sweden 5–1, and the goals lean Netherlands’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Sweden, 2 end level. Rated on this tournament’s goals, Netherlands were expected to score 2.7 here and Sweden 1.5.

Full time

Goals
Netherlands 5
Sweden 1

June 20, 2026

Luck index +28 Netherlands lucky · −28 Sweden

Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the tournament say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works

Ten replays. Netherlands win 6, 2 end level, Sweden win 2.

  1. 1 NED 1 SWE 0
  2. 2 NED 1 SWE 0
  3. 3 NED 2 SWE 0
  4. 4 NED 3 SWE 1
  5. 5 NED 5 SWE 2
  6. 6 NED 4 SWE 0
  7. 7 NED 0 SWE 0
  8. 8 NED 2 SWE 2
  9. 9 NED 0 SWE 2
  10. 10 NED 1 SWE 2

The goals

Netherlands’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the goals, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Netherlands was ahead in it, below while Sweden was.
MinuteGoalScoreWin chance
1. 5' Brian Brobbey (Netherlands) 1–0 +23% Netherlands
2. 17' Brian Brobbey (Netherlands) 2–0 +16% Netherlands
3. 47' Cody Gakpo (Netherlands) 3–0 +4% Netherlands
4. 54' Cody Gakpo (Netherlands) 4–0 +1% Netherlands
5. 59' Anthony Elanga (Sweden) 4–1 +0% Sweden
6. 89' Crysencio Summerville (Netherlands) 5–1 +0% Netherlands

Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.

About these numbers

Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the tournament’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Netherlands win 72% of replays (a draw counted as half).

All matchday 2 matches, 2026 · Netherlands · Sweden

More from matchday 2, 2026

Every match of matchday 2, 2026