Matchday 2 · World Cup 2026 · June 20, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Tunisia 0–4 Japan: lucky or expected?
Japan beat Tunisia 4–0, and the goals back it up: from both teams’ goals this tournament, Japan win 8 of 10, 1 end level. Rated on this tournament’s goals, Tunisia were expected to score 0.8 here and Japan 3.0.
What the goals say
Luck index +14 Japan about even · −14 Tunisia
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the tournament say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Tunisia win 1, 1 ends level, Japan win 8.
- 1 TUN 2 JPN 1
- 2 TUN 3 JPN 3
- 3 TUN 0 JPN 5
- 4 TUN 0 JPN 4
- 5 TUN 2 JPN 5
- 6 TUN 2 JPN 5
- 7 TUN 1 JPN 3
- 8 TUN 0 JPN 2
- 9 TUN 1 JPN 2
- 10 TUN 1 JPN 2
The goals
Tunisia’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 4' | Daichi Kamada (Japan) | 0–1 | +23% Japan |
| 2. 31' | Ayase Ueda (Japan) | 0–2 | +15% Japan |
| 3. 69' | Junya Ito (Japan) | 0–3 | +2% Japan |
| 4. 83' | Ayase Ueda (Japan) | 0–4 | +0% Japan |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the tournament’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Japan win 86% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 2, 2026
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- Canada 6–0 Qatar Jun 18, 2026 · replay 70% for Canada
- Scotland 0–1 Morocco Jun 19, 2026 · replay 83% for Morocco
- Brazil 3–0 Haiti Jun 19, 2026 · replay 88% for Brazil
- United States 2–0 Australia Jun 19, 2026 · replay 59% for United States
- Turkey 0–1 Paraguay Jun 19, 2026 · replay 56% for Paraguay
- Germany 2–1 Ivory Coast Jun 20, 2026 · replay 53% for Germany
- Ecuador 0–0 Curaçao Jun 20, 2026 · drawn; replay 29% draws
- Netherlands 5–1 Sweden Jun 20, 2026 · replay 72% for Netherlands
- Belgium 0–0 Iran Jun 21, 2026 · drawn; replay 30% draws