Round of 32 · World Cup 2026 · July 3, 2026 · AET
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Argentina 3–2 Cape Verde: lucky or expected?
Argentina beat Cape Verde 3–2 after extra time, and the goals back it up: from both teams’ goals this tournament, Argentina go through 7 times in 10. Rated on this tournament’s goals, Argentina were expected to score 1.2 here and Cape Verde 0.6. An own goal helped Argentina.
Full time · after extra time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Argentina | 3 |
 Cape Verde | 2 |
What the goals say: who goes through
Luck index +31 Argentina lucky · −31 Cape Verde
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the tournament say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings, a level 90 minutes going to extra time and then penalties as a coin flip. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays of the 90 minutes. Argentina win 5, 3 end level, Cape Verde win 2.
- 1 ARG 1 CPV 0
- 2 ARG 1 CPV 0
- 3 ARG 1 CPV 0
- 4 ARG 2 CPV 0
- 5 ARG 3 CPV 0
- 6 ARG 1 CPV 1
- 7 ARG 0 CPV 0
- 8 ARG 1 CPV 1
- 9 ARG 0 CPV 1
- 10 ARG 0 CPV 1
The goals
Argentina’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 29' | Lionel Messi (Argentina) | 1–0 | +26% Argentina |
| 2. 59' | Deroy Duarte (Cape Verde) | 1–1 | +34% Cape Verde |
| 3. 92' | Lisandro Martínez (Argentina) | 2–1 | +35% Argentina |
| 4. 103' | Sidny Lopes Cabral (Cape Verde) | 2–2 | +39% Cape Verde |
| 5. 111' | Diney Borges (Argentina, own goal) | 3–2 | +44% Argentina |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the tournament’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. This tie went to extra time: after 90 minutes it stood 1–1. Argentina go through in 69% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from round of 32, 2026
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- France 3–0 Sweden Jun 30, 2026 · replay 84% for France
- Ivory Coast 1–2 Norway Jun 30, 2026 · replay 68% for Norway
- Mexico 2–0 Ecuador Jun 30, 2026 · replay 88% for Mexico
- England 2–1 DR Congo Jul 1, 2026 · replay 71% for England
- United States 2–0 Bosnia and Herzegovina Jul 1, 2026 · replay 73% for United States
- Belgium 3–2 Senegal Jul 1, 2026 · AET · replay 65% for Belgium
- Portugal 2–1 Croatia Jul 2, 2026 · replay 66% for Portugal
- Spain 3–0 Austria Jul 2, 2026 · replay 94% for Spain