Round of 32 · World Cup 2026 · July 3, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Colombia 1–0 Ghana: lucky or expected?
Colombia beat Ghana 1–0, and the goals back it up: from both teams’ goals this tournament, Colombia go through 7 times in 10. Rated on this tournament’s goals, Colombia were expected to score 0.6 here and Ghana 0.1.
What the goals say: who goes through
Luck index +31 Colombia lucky · −31 Ghana
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the tournament say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings, a level 90 minutes going to extra time and then penalties as a coin flip. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays of the 90 minutes. Colombia win 4, 5 end level, Ghana win 1.
- 1 COL 1 GHA 0
- 2 COL 1 GHA 0
- 3 COL 1 GHA 0
- 4 COL 3 GHA 1
- 5 COL 0 GHA 0
- 6 COL 0 GHA 0
- 7 COL 0 GHA 0
- 8 COL 0 GHA 0
- 9 COL 0 GHA 0
- 10 COL 0 GHA 1
The goals
Colombia’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 14' | Jhon Arias (Colombia) | 1–0 | +24% Colombia |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the tournament’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Colombia go through in 69% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from round of 32, 2026
- South Africa 0–1 Canada Jun 28, 2026 · replay 60% for Canada
- Germany 1–1 Paraguay Jun 29, 2026 · pens · replay 39% for Paraguay
- Netherlands 1–1 Morocco Jun 29, 2026 · pens · replay 50% for Morocco
- Brazil 2–1 Japan Jun 29, 2026 · replay 68% for Brazil
- France 3–0 Sweden Jun 30, 2026 · replay 84% for France
- Ivory Coast 1–2 Norway Jun 30, 2026 · replay 68% for Norway
- Mexico 2–0 Ecuador Jun 30, 2026 · replay 88% for Mexico
- England 2–1 DR Congo Jul 1, 2026 · replay 71% for England
- United States 2–0 Bosnia and Herzegovina Jul 1, 2026 · replay 73% for United States
- Belgium 3–2 Senegal Jul 1, 2026 · AET · replay 65% for Belgium
- Portugal 2–1 Croatia Jul 2, 2026 · replay 66% for Portugal
- Spain 3–0 Austria Jul 2, 2026 · replay 94% for Spain