Matchday 10 · La Liga 2025-26 · October 25, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Athletic 0–1 Getafe: lucky or expected?
Getafe beat Athletic 1–0, but the goals lean toward Athletic: 4 wins in 10 to Getafe’s 3, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Athletic were expected to score 1.0 here and Getafe 0.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Athletic Club | 0 |
 Getafe | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +55 Getafe lucky · −55 Athletic
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Athletic win 4, 3 end level, Getafe win 3.
- 1 ATH 2 GET 1
- 2 ATH 2 GET 1
- 3 ATH 2 GET 0
- 4 ATH 2 GET 0
- 5 ATH 2 GET 2
- 6 ATH 0 GET 0
- 7 ATH 1 GET 1
- 8 ATH 2 GET 4
- 9 ATH 1 GET 2
- 10 ATH 0 GET 1
The goals
Athletic’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 60%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 75' | Borja Mayoral (Getafe) | 0–1 | +42% Getafe |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Getafe win 45% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 10, 2025-26
- Real Sociedad 2–1 Sevilla Oct 24, 2025 · replay 65% for Real Sociedad
- Girona 3–3 Oviedo Oct 25, 2025 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Espanyol 1–0 Elche Oct 25, 2025 · replay 58% for Espanyol
- Valencia 0–2 Villarreal Oct 25, 2025 · replay 55% for Villarreal
- Mallorca 1–1 Levante Oct 26, 2025 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Real Madrid 2–1 Barcelona Oct 26, 2025 · replay 51% for Real Madrid
- Osasuna 2–3 Celta Oct 26, 2025 · replay 46% for Celta
- Rayo 1–0 Alavés Oct 26, 2025 · replay 67% for Rayo
- Betis 0–2 Atlético Oct 27, 2025 · replay 45% for Atlético