Matchday 10 · La Liga 2025-26 · October 26, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Osasuna 2–3 Celta: lucky or expected?
Celta beat Osasuna 3–2, but the goals call it even: Celta win 3 of 10, Osasuna 4, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Osasuna were expected to score 1.3 here and Celta 1.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Osasuna | 2 |
 Celta Vigo | 3 |
What the goals say
Luck index +54 Celta lucky · −54 Osasuna
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Osasuna win 4, 3 end level, Celta win 3.
- 1 OSA 1 CEL 0
- 2 OSA 2 CEL 1
- 3 OSA 2 CEL 0
- 4 OSA 3 CEL 0
- 5 OSA 1 CEL 1
- 6 OSA 2 CEL 2
- 7 OSA 0 CEL 0
- 8 OSA 0 CEL 2
- 9 OSA 0 CEL 1
- 10 OSA 1 CEL 2
The goals
Osasuna’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 91%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 26' | Ferran Jutglà (Celta) | 0–1 | +28% Celta |
| 2. 37' | Ante Budimir (Osasuna, penalty) | 1–1 | +30% Osasuna |
| 3. 45+1' | Ante Budimir (Osasuna) | 2–1 | +29% Osasuna |
| 4. 69' | Ferran Jutglà (Celta) | 2–2 | +37% Celta |
| 5. 87' | Pablo Durán (Celta) | 2–3 | +48% Celta |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Celta win 46% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 10, 2025-26
- Real Sociedad 2–1 Sevilla Oct 24, 2025 · replay 65% for Real Sociedad
- Girona 3–3 Oviedo Oct 25, 2025 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Espanyol 1–0 Elche Oct 25, 2025 · replay 58% for Espanyol
- Athletic 0–1 Getafe Oct 25, 2025 · replay 45% for Getafe
- Valencia 0–2 Villarreal Oct 25, 2025 · replay 55% for Villarreal
- Mallorca 1–1 Levante Oct 26, 2025 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Real Madrid 2–1 Barcelona Oct 26, 2025 · replay 51% for Real Madrid
- Rayo 1–0 Alavés Oct 26, 2025 · replay 67% for Rayo
- Betis 0–2 Atlético Oct 27, 2025 · replay 45% for Atlético