Matchday 10 · La Liga 2025-26 · October 26, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Real Madrid 2–1 Barcelona: lucky or expected?
Real Madrid beat Barcelona 2–1, but the goals call it even: Real Madrid win 4 of 10, Barcelona 4, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Real Madrid were expected to score 1.9 here and Barcelona 1.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Real Madrid | 2 |
 Barcelona | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +49 Real Madrid lucky · −49 Barcelona
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Real Madrid win 4, 2 end level, Barcelona win 4.
- 1 RMA 3 BAR 2
- 2 RMA 1 BAR 0
- 3 RMA 4 BAR 2
- 4 RMA 3 BAR 0
- 5 RMA 1 BAR 1
- 6 RMA 1 BAR 1
- 7 RMA 1 BAR 4
- 8 RMA 1 BAR 3
- 9 RMA 0 BAR 1
- 10 RMA 1 BAR 2
The goals
Real Madrid’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 22' | Kylian Mbappe (Real Madrid) | 1–0 | +24% Real Madrid |
| 2. 38' | Fermin Lopez (Barcelona) | 1–1 | +27% Barcelona |
| 3. 43' | Jude Bellingham (Real Madrid) | 2–1 | +28% Real Madrid |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Real Madrid win 51% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 10, 2025-26
- Real Sociedad 2–1 Sevilla Oct 24, 2025 · replay 65% for Real Sociedad
- Girona 3–3 Oviedo Oct 25, 2025 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Espanyol 1–0 Elche Oct 25, 2025 · replay 58% for Espanyol
- Athletic 0–1 Getafe Oct 25, 2025 · replay 45% for Getafe
- Valencia 0–2 Villarreal Oct 25, 2025 · replay 55% for Villarreal
- Mallorca 1–1 Levante Oct 26, 2025 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Osasuna 2–3 Celta Oct 26, 2025 · replay 46% for Celta
- Rayo 1–0 Alavés Oct 26, 2025 · replay 67% for Rayo
- Betis 0–2 Atlético Oct 27, 2025 · replay 45% for Atlético