Matchday 10 · La Liga 2025-26 · October 24, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Real Sociedad 2–1 Sevilla: lucky or expected?
Real Sociedad beat Sevilla 2–1, and the goals lean Real Sociedad’s way: 5 wins in 10, 3 for Sevilla, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Real Sociedad were expected to score 2.0 here and Sevilla 1.3.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Real Sociedad | 2 |
 Sevilla | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +35 Real Sociedad lucky · −35 Sevilla
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Real Sociedad win 5, 2 end level, Sevilla win 3.
- 1 RSO 2 SEV 1
- 2 RSO 1 SEV 0
- 3 RSO 3 SEV 1
- 4 RSO 3 SEV 0
- 5 RSO 6 SEV 2
- 6 RSO 0 SEV 0
- 7 RSO 1 SEV 1
- 8 RSO 2 SEV 4
- 9 RSO 0 SEV 1
- 10 RSO 2 SEV 3
The goals
Real Sociedad’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 19' | Mikel Oyarzabal (Real Sociedad, penalty) | 1–0 | +23% Real Sociedad |
| 2. 30' | Nemanja Gudelj (Sevilla) | 1–1 | +25% Sevilla |
| 3. 36' | Mikel Oyarzabal (Real Sociedad) | 2–1 | +26% Real Sociedad |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Real Sociedad win 65% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 10, 2025-26
- Girona 3–3 Oviedo Oct 25, 2025 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Espanyol 1–0 Elche Oct 25, 2025 · replay 58% for Espanyol
- Athletic 0–1 Getafe Oct 25, 2025 · replay 45% for Getafe
- Valencia 0–2 Villarreal Oct 25, 2025 · replay 55% for Villarreal
- Mallorca 1–1 Levante Oct 26, 2025 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Real Madrid 2–1 Barcelona Oct 26, 2025 · replay 51% for Real Madrid
- Osasuna 2–3 Celta Oct 26, 2025 · replay 46% for Celta
- Rayo 1–0 Alavés Oct 26, 2025 · replay 67% for Rayo
- Betis 0–2 Atlético Oct 27, 2025 · replay 45% for Atlético