Matchday 20 · La Liga 2025-26 · January 17, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Mallorca 3–2 Athletic: lucky or expected?
Mallorca beat Athletic 3–2, and the goals lean Mallorca’s way: 5 wins in 10, 2 for Athletic, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Mallorca were expected to score 1.6 here and Athletic 1.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Mallorca | 3 |
 Athletic Club | 2 |
What the goals say
Luck index +39 Mallorca lucky · −39 Athletic
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Mallorca win 5, 3 end level, Athletic win 2.
- 1 MLL 1 ATH 0
- 2 MLL 1 ATH 0
- 3 MLL 1 ATH 0
- 4 MLL 2 ATH 0
- 5 MLL 3 ATH 0
- 6 MLL 0 ATH 0
- 7 MLL 1 ATH 1
- 8 MLL 1 ATH 1
- 9 MLL 0 ATH 2
- 10 MLL 0 ATH 1
The goals
Mallorca’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 5' | Vedat Muriqi (Mallorca) | 1–0 | +21% Mallorca |
| 2. 8' | Unai Gomez (Athletic) | 1–1 | +22% Athletic |
| 3. 42' | Vedat Muriqi (Mallorca) | 2–1 | +28% Mallorca |
| 4. 45' | Nico Williams (Athletic) | 2–2 | +28% Athletic |
| 5. 69' | Vedat Muriqi (Mallorca, penalty) | 3–2 | +37% Mallorca |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Mallorca win 61% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 20, 2025-26
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- Real Madrid 2–0 Levante Jan 17, 2026 · replay 83% for Real Madrid
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- Betis 2–0 Villarreal Jan 17, 2026 · replay 54% for Betis
- Getafe 0–1 Valencia Jan 18, 2026 · replay 39% for Valencia
- Atlético 1–0 Alavés Jan 18, 2026 · replay 75% for Atlético
- Celta 3–0 Rayo Jan 18, 2026 · replay 64% for Celta
- Real Sociedad 2–1 Barcelona Jan 18, 2026 · replay 32% for Real Sociedad
- Elche 2–2 Sevilla Jan 19, 2026 · drawn; replay 26% draws