Matchday 20 · La Liga 2025-26 · January 18, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Real Sociedad 2–1 Barcelona: lucky or expected?
Real Sociedad beat Barcelona 2–1, but the goals lean toward Barcelona: 6 wins in 10 to Real Sociedad’s 2, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Real Sociedad were expected to score 1.5 here and Barcelona 2.5.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Real Sociedad | 2 |
 Barcelona | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +68 Real Sociedad very lucky · −68 Barcelona
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Real Sociedad win 2, 2 end level, Barcelona win 6.
- 1 RSO 1 BAR 0
- 2 RSO 3 BAR 1
- 3 RSO 3 BAR 3
- 4 RSO 2 BAR 2
- 5 RSO 1 BAR 5
- 6 RSO 1 BAR 4
- 7 RSO 1 BAR 3
- 8 RSO 2 BAR 4
- 9 RSO 2 BAR 3
- 10 RSO 1 BAR 2
The goals
Real Sociedad’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 32' | Mikel Oyarzabal (Real Sociedad) | 1–0 | +26% Real Sociedad |
| 2. 70' | Marcus Rashford (Barcelona) | 1–1 | +37% Barcelona |
| 3. 71' | Goncalo Guedes (Real Sociedad) | 2–1 | +38% Real Sociedad |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Real Sociedad win 32% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 20 matches, 2025-26 · 
Real Sociedad · 
Barcelona
More from matchday 20, 2025-26
- Espanyol 0–2 Girona Jan 16, 2026 · replay 40% for Girona
- Real Madrid 2–0 Levante Jan 17, 2026 · replay 83% for Real Madrid
- Mallorca 3–2 Athletic Jan 17, 2026 · replay 61% for Mallorca
- Osasuna 3–2 Oviedo Jan 17, 2026 · replay 76% for Osasuna
- Betis 2–0 Villarreal Jan 17, 2026 · replay 54% for Betis
- Getafe 0–1 Valencia Jan 18, 2026 · replay 39% for Valencia
- Atlético 1–0 Alavés Jan 18, 2026 · replay 75% for Atlético
- Celta 3–0 Rayo Jan 18, 2026 · replay 64% for Celta
- Elche 2–2 Sevilla Jan 19, 2026 · drawn; replay 26% draws