luckadjusted
La Liga Matchday 7 · 2026-27

Matchday 20 · La Liga 2025-26 · January 18, 2026

Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.

Atlético 1–0 Alavés: lucky or expected?

Atlético beat Alavés 1–0, and the goals lean Atlético’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Alavés, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Atlético were expected to score 2.0 here and Alavés 0.8.

Full time

Goals
Atlético Madrid 1
Alavés 0

January 18, 2026

Luck index +25 Atlético lucky · −25 Alavés

Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works

Ten replays. Atlético win 6, 2 end level, Alavés win 2.

  1. 1 ATM 1 ALA 0
  2. 2 ATM 1 ALA 0
  3. 3 ATM 2 ALA 0
  4. 4 ATM 3 ALA 1
  5. 5 ATM 3 ALA 0
  6. 6 ATM 4 ALA 0
  7. 7 ATM 0 ALA 0
  8. 8 ATM 1 ALA 1
  9. 9 ATM 0 ALA 2
  10. 10 ATM 1 ALA 2

The goals

Atlético’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the goals, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Atlético was ahead in it, below while Alavés was.
MinuteGoalScoreWin chance
1. 48' Alexander Sorloth (Atlético) 1–0 +29% Atlético

Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.

About these numbers

Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Atlético win 75% of replays (a draw counted as half).

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