Matchday 20 · La Liga 2025-26 · January 17, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Real Madrid 2–0 Levante: lucky or expected?
Real Madrid beat Levante 2–0, and the goals back it up: from both teams’ goals this season, Real Madrid win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Real Madrid were expected to score 2.4 here and Levante 0.7.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Real Madrid | 2 |
 Levante | 0 |
What the goals say
Luck index +17 Real Madrid about even · −17 Levante
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Real Madrid win 7, 2 end level, Levante win 1.
- 1 RMA 2 LEV 1
- 2 RMA 2 LEV 1
- 3 RMA 3 LEV 1
- 4 RMA 2 LEV 0
- 5 RMA 3 LEV 0
- 6 RMA 3 LEV 0
- 7 RMA 5 LEV 0
- 8 RMA 1 LEV 1
- 9 RMA 0 LEV 0
- 10 RMA 0 LEV 1
The goals
Real Madrid’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 58' | Kylian Mbappe (Real Madrid, penalty) | 1–0 | +32% Real Madrid |
| 2. 65' | Raúl Asencio (Real Madrid) | 2–0 | +9% Real Madrid |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Real Madrid win 83% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 20, 2025-26
- Espanyol 0–2 Girona Jan 16, 2026 · replay 40% for Girona
- Mallorca 3–2 Athletic Jan 17, 2026 · replay 61% for Mallorca
- Osasuna 3–2 Oviedo Jan 17, 2026 · replay 76% for Osasuna
- Betis 2–0 Villarreal Jan 17, 2026 · replay 54% for Betis
- Getafe 0–1 Valencia Jan 18, 2026 · replay 39% for Valencia
- Atlético 1–0 Alavés Jan 18, 2026 · replay 75% for Atlético
- Celta 3–0 Rayo Jan 18, 2026 · replay 64% for Celta
- Real Sociedad 2–1 Barcelona Jan 18, 2026 · replay 32% for Real Sociedad
- Elche 2–2 Sevilla Jan 19, 2026 · drawn; replay 26% draws