Matchday 21 · La Liga 2025-26 · January 24, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Rayo 1–3 Osasuna: lucky or expected?
Osasuna beat Rayo 3–1, but the goals lean toward Rayo: 5 wins in 10 to Osasuna’s 2, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Rayo were expected to score 1.3 here and Osasuna 0.7. An own goal helped Osasuna.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Rayo Vallecano | 1 |
 Osasuna | 3 |
What the goals say
Luck index +64 Osasuna very lucky · −64 Rayo
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Rayo win 5, 3 end level, Osasuna win 2.
- 1 RAY 1 OSA 0
- 2 RAY 1 OSA 0
- 3 RAY 1 OSA 0
- 4 RAY 2 OSA 0
- 5 RAY 3 OSA 0
- 6 RAY 0 OSA 0
- 7 RAY 0 OSA 0
- 8 RAY 1 OSA 1
- 9 RAY 0 OSA 2
- 10 RAY 0 OSA 1
The goals
Rayo’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 60%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 29' | Ante Budimir (Osasuna) | 0–1 | +29% Osasuna |
| 2. 59' | Pathe Ciss (Rayo) | 1–1 | +36% Rayo |
| 90+1' | Jozhua Vertrouwd (Osasuna, own goal) | 1–2 | |
| 90+4' | Asier Osambela (Osasuna) | 1–3 |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Osasuna win 36% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 21, 2025-26
- Levante 3–2 Elche Jan 23, 2026 · replay 56% for Levante
- Valencia 3–2 Espanyol Jan 24, 2026 · replay 63% for Valencia
- Sevilla 2–1 Athletic Jan 24, 2026 · replay 59% for Sevilla
- Villarreal 0–2 Real Madrid Jan 24, 2026 · replay 51% for Real Madrid
- Atlético 3–0 Mallorca Jan 25, 2026 · replay 74% for Atlético
- Barcelona 3–0 Oviedo Jan 25, 2026 · replay 94% for Barcelona
- Real Sociedad 3–1 Celta Jan 25, 2026 · replay 55% for Real Sociedad
- Alavés 2–1 Betis Jan 25, 2026 · replay 47% for Alavés
- Girona 1–1 Getafe Jan 26, 2026 · drawn; replay 37% draws