luckadjusted
La Liga Matchday 7 · 2026-27

Matchday 21 · La Liga 2025-26 · January 24, 2026

Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.

Villarreal 0–2 Real Madrid: lucky or expected?

Real Madrid beat Villarreal 2–0, but the goals call it even: Real Madrid win 4 of 10, Villarreal 4, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Villarreal were expected to score 1.7 here and Real Madrid 1.7.

Full time

Goals
Villarreal 0
Real Madrid 2

January 24, 2026

Luck index +49 Real Madrid lucky · −49 Villarreal

Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works

Ten replays. Villarreal win 4, 2 end level, Real Madrid win 4.

  1. 1 VIL 3 RMA 2
  2. 2 VIL 2 RMA 1
  3. 3 VIL 2 RMA 0
  4. 4 VIL 3 RMA 0
  5. 5 VIL 0 RMA 0
  6. 6 VIL 1 RMA 1
  7. 7 VIL 1 RMA 5
  8. 8 VIL 0 RMA 2
  9. 9 VIL 2 RMA 3
  10. 10 VIL 1 RMA 2

The goals

Villarreal’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 60%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Villarreal was ahead in it, below while Real Madrid was.
MinuteGoalScoreWin chance
1. 47' Kylian Mbappe (Real Madrid) 0–1 +33% Real Madrid
90+4' Kylian Mbappe (Real Madrid, penalty) 0–2

Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.

About these numbers

Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Real Madrid win 51% of replays (a draw counted as half).

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