luckadjusted
La Liga Matchday 7 · 2026-27

Matchday 21 · La Liga 2025-26 · January 25, 2026

Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.

Real Sociedad 3–1 Celta: lucky or expected?

Real Sociedad beat Celta 3–1, and the goals lean Real Sociedad’s way: 4 wins in 10, 3 for Celta, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Real Sociedad were expected to score 1.7 here and Celta 1.4.

Full time

Goals
Real Sociedad 3
Celta Vigo 1

January 25, 2026

Luck index +45 Real Sociedad lucky · −45 Celta

Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works

Ten replays. Real Sociedad win 4, 3 end level, Celta win 3.

  1. 1 RSO 2 CEL 1
  2. 2 RSO 2 CEL 1
  3. 3 RSO 2 CEL 0
  4. 4 RSO 4 CEL 1
  5. 5 RSO 0 CEL 0
  6. 6 RSO 1 CEL 1
  7. 7 RSO 1 CEL 1
  8. 8 RSO 0 CEL 2
  9. 9 RSO 0 CEL 1
  10. 10 RSO 1 CEL 2

The goals

Real Sociedad’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the goals, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Real Sociedad was ahead in it, below while Celta was.
MinuteGoalScoreWin chance
1. 17' Mikel Oyarzabal (Real Sociedad) 1–0 +23% Real Sociedad
2. 72' Borja Iglesias (Celta) 1–1 +38% Celta
3. 75' Mikel Oyarzabal (Real Sociedad) 2–1 +40% Real Sociedad
90+6' Brais Mendez (Real Sociedad, penalty) 3–1

Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.

About these numbers

Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Real Sociedad win 55% of replays (a draw counted as half).

All matchday 21 matches, 2025-26 · Real Sociedad · Celta

More from matchday 21, 2025-26

Every match of matchday 21, 2025-26