Matchday 21 · La Liga 2025-26 · January 25, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Atlético 3–0 Mallorca: lucky or expected?
Atlético beat Mallorca 3–0, and the goals lean Atlético’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Mallorca, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Atlético were expected to score 2.0 here and Mallorca 0.9. An own goal helped Atlético.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Atlético Madrid | 3 |
 Mallorca | 0 |
What the goals say
Luck index +26 Atlético lucky · −26 Mallorca
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Atlético win 6, 2 end level, Mallorca win 2.
- 1 ATM 2 MLL 1
- 2 ATM 1 MLL 0
- 3 ATM 2 MLL 0
- 4 ATM 2 MLL 0
- 5 ATM 3 MLL 0
- 6 ATM 4 MLL 0
- 7 ATM 1 MLL 1
- 8 ATM 1 MLL 1
- 9 ATM 1 MLL 3
- 10 ATM 0 MLL 1
The goals
Atlético’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 22' | Alexander Sorloth (Atlético) | 1–0 | +24% Atlético |
| 2. 75' | David López (Atlético, own goal) | 2–0 | +7% Atlético |
| 3. 87' | Thiago Almada (Atlético) | 3–0 | +0% Atlético |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Atlético win 74% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 21, 2025-26
- Levante 3–2 Elche Jan 23, 2026 · replay 56% for Levante
- Rayo 1–3 Osasuna Jan 24, 2026 · replay 36% for Osasuna
- Valencia 3–2 Espanyol Jan 24, 2026 · replay 63% for Valencia
- Sevilla 2–1 Athletic Jan 24, 2026 · replay 59% for Sevilla
- Villarreal 0–2 Real Madrid Jan 24, 2026 · replay 51% for Real Madrid
- Barcelona 3–0 Oviedo Jan 25, 2026 · replay 94% for Barcelona
- Real Sociedad 3–1 Celta Jan 25, 2026 · replay 55% for Real Sociedad
- Alavés 2–1 Betis Jan 25, 2026 · replay 47% for Alavés
- Girona 1–1 Getafe Jan 26, 2026 · drawn; replay 37% draws