luckadjusted
La Liga Matchday 7 · 2026-27

Matchday 26 · La Liga 2025-26 · February 28, 2026

Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.

Oviedo 0–1 Atlético: lucky or expected?

Atlético beat Oviedo 1–0, and the goals lean Atlético’s way: 5 wins in 10, 2 for Oviedo, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Oviedo were expected to score 0.7 here and Atlético 1.6.

Full time

Goals
Real Oviedo 0
Atlético Madrid 1

February 28, 2026

Luck index +30 Atlético lucky · −30 Oviedo

Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works

Ten replays. Oviedo win 2, 3 end level, Atlético win 5.

  1. 1 OVI 1 ATM 0
  2. 2 OVI 2 ATM 0
  3. 3 OVI 0 ATM 0
  4. 4 OVI 0 ATM 0
  5. 5 OVI 2 ATM 2
  6. 6 OVI 2 ATM 5
  7. 7 OVI 0 ATM 2
  8. 8 OVI 1 ATM 2
  9. 9 OVI 0 ATM 1
  10. 10 OVI 0 ATM 1

The goals

MinuteGoalScoreWin chance
90+4' Julian Alvarez (Atlético) 0–1

Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.

About these numbers

Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Atlético win 70% of replays (a draw counted as half).

All matchday 26 matches, 2025-26 · Oviedo · Atlético

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