Matchday 26 · La Liga 2025-26 · March 1, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Elche 2–2 Espanyol: lucky or expected?
Elche and Espanyol drew 2–2. Replayed from both teams’ goals this season, Elche win 5 of 10, Espanyol 2, and 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Elche were expected to score 1.6 here and Espanyol 1.1.
What the goals say
Luck index −11 Elche about even for the draw
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Elche win 5, 3 end level, Espanyol win 2.
- 1 ELC 2 ESP 1
- 2 ELC 2 ESP 1
- 3 ELC 3 ESP 1
- 4 ELC 3 ESP 1
- 5 ELC 3 ESP 0
- 6 ELC 0 ESP 0
- 7 ELC 1 ESP 1
- 8 ELC 0 ESP 0
- 9 ELC 0 ESP 2
- 10 ELC 1 ESP 2
The goals
Elche’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 60%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 7' | Kike (Espanyol) | 0–1 | +25% Espanyol |
| 2. 42' | Marc Aguado (Elche) | 1–1 | +31% Elche |
| 3. 57' | Carlos Romero (Espanyol) | 1–2 | +35% Espanyol |
| 4. 90' | Rafa Mir (Elche, penalty) | 2–2 | +50% Elche |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.
More from matchday 26, 2025-26
- Levante 2–0 Alavés Feb 27, 2026 · replay 58% for Levante
- Rayo 1–1 Athletic Feb 28, 2026 · drawn; replay 29% draws
- Barcelona 4–1 Villarreal Feb 28, 2026 · replay 73% for Barcelona
- Mallorca 0–1 Real Sociedad Feb 28, 2026 · replay 45% for Real Sociedad
- Oviedo 0–1 Atlético Feb 28, 2026 · replay 70% for Atlético
- Valencia 1–0 Osasuna Mar 1, 2026 · replay 60% for Valencia
- Betis 2–2 Sevilla Mar 1, 2026 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Girona 1–2 Celta Mar 1, 2026 · replay 50% for Celta
- Real Madrid 0–1 Getafe Mar 2, 2026 · replay 16% for Getafe