Matchday 26 · La Liga 2025-26 · March 1, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Girona 1–2 Celta: lucky or expected?
Celta beat Girona 2–1, but the goals call it even: Celta win 4 of 10, Girona 3, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Girona were expected to score 1.2 here and Celta 1.2. An own goal helped Celta.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Girona | 1 |
 Celta Vigo | 2 |
What the goals say
Luck index +50 Celta lucky · −50 Girona
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Girona win 3, 3 end level, Celta win 4.
- 1 GIR 1 CEL 0
- 2 GIR 2 CEL 1
- 3 GIR 2 CEL 0
- 4 GIR 1 CEL 1
- 5 GIR 0 CEL 0
- 6 GIR 0 CEL 0
- 7 GIR 0 CEL 3
- 8 GIR 0 CEL 2
- 9 GIR 0 CEL 1
- 10 GIR 0 CEL 1
The goals
Girona’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 88%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 35' | Vladyslav Vanat (Girona) | 1–0 | +26% Girona |
| 2. 58' | Ferran Jutglà (Celta) | 1–1 | +32% Celta |
| 3. 70' | Vitor Reis (Celta, own goal) | 1–2 | +40% Celta |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Celta win 50% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 26, 2025-26
- Levante 2–0 Alavés Feb 27, 2026 · replay 58% for Levante
- Rayo 1–1 Athletic Feb 28, 2026 · drawn; replay 29% draws
- Barcelona 4–1 Villarreal Feb 28, 2026 · replay 73% for Barcelona
- Mallorca 0–1 Real Sociedad Feb 28, 2026 · replay 45% for Real Sociedad
- Oviedo 0–1 Atlético Feb 28, 2026 · replay 70% for Atlético
- Elche 2–2 Espanyol Mar 1, 2026 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Valencia 1–0 Osasuna Mar 1, 2026 · replay 60% for Valencia
- Betis 2–2 Sevilla Mar 1, 2026 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Real Madrid 0–1 Getafe Mar 2, 2026 · replay 16% for Getafe