Matchday 26 · La Liga 2025-26 · February 28, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Barcelona 4–1 Villarreal: lucky or expected?
Barcelona beat Villarreal 4–1, and the goals lean Barcelona’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Villarreal, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Barcelona were expected to score 2.6 here and Villarreal 1.3.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Barcelona | 4 |
 Villarreal | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +27 Barcelona lucky · −27 Villarreal
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Barcelona win 6, 2 end level, Villarreal win 2.
- 1 BAR 4 VIL 3
- 2 BAR 2 VIL 1
- 3 BAR 2 VIL 0
- 4 BAR 2 VIL 0
- 5 BAR 4 VIL 1
- 6 BAR 5 VIL 1
- 7 BAR 1 VIL 1
- 8 BAR 3 VIL 3
- 9 BAR 1 VIL 3
- 10 BAR 1 VIL 2
The goals
Barcelona’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 28' | Lamine Yamal (Barcelona) | 1–0 | +25% Barcelona |
| 2. 37' | Lamine Yamal (Barcelona) | 2–0 | +12% Barcelona |
| 3. 49' | Pape Gueye (Villarreal) | 2–1 | +11% Villarreal |
| 4. 69' | Lamine Yamal (Barcelona) | 3–1 | +8% Barcelona |
| 90+1' | Robert Lewandowski (Barcelona) | 4–1 |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Barcelona win 73% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 26, 2025-26
- Levante 2–0 Alavés Feb 27, 2026 · replay 58% for Levante
- Rayo 1–1 Athletic Feb 28, 2026 · drawn; replay 29% draws
- Mallorca 0–1 Real Sociedad Feb 28, 2026 · replay 45% for Real Sociedad
- Oviedo 0–1 Atlético Feb 28, 2026 · replay 70% for Atlético
- Elche 2–2 Espanyol Mar 1, 2026 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Valencia 1–0 Osasuna Mar 1, 2026 · replay 60% for Valencia
- Betis 2–2 Sevilla Mar 1, 2026 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Girona 1–2 Celta Mar 1, 2026 · replay 50% for Celta
- Real Madrid 0–1 Getafe Mar 2, 2026 · replay 16% for Getafe