Matchday 28 · La Liga 2025-26 · March 14, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Real Madrid 4–1 Elche: lucky or expected?
Real Madrid beat Elche 4–1, and the goals back it up: from both teams’ goals this season, Real Madrid win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Real Madrid were expected to score 2.3 here and Elche 0.7. An own goal helped Elche.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Real Madrid | 4 |
 Elche | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +19 Real Madrid about even · −19 Elche
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Real Madrid win 7, 2 end level, Elche win 1.
- 1 RMA 1 ELC 0
- 2 RMA 1 ELC 0
- 3 RMA 2 ELC 0
- 4 RMA 2 ELC 0
- 5 RMA 3 ELC 0
- 6 RMA 4 ELC 1
- 7 RMA 5 ELC 0
- 8 RMA 1 ELC 1
- 9 RMA 0 ELC 0
- 10 RMA 2 ELC 3
The goals
Real Madrid’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 39' | Antonio Ruediger (Real Madrid) | 1–0 | +27% Real Madrid |
| 2. 44' | Federico Valverde (Real Madrid) | 2–0 | +12% Real Madrid |
| 3. 66' | Dean Huijsen (Real Madrid) | 3–0 | +1% Real Madrid |
| 4. 85' | Manuel Ángel (Elche, own goal) | 3–1 | +0% Elche |
| 5. 89' | Arda Guler (Real Madrid) | 4–1 | +0% Real Madrid |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Real Madrid win 81% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 28, 2025-26
- Alavés 1–1 Villarreal Mar 13, 2026 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Girona 3–0 Athletic Mar 14, 2026 · replay 60% for Girona
- Atlético 1–0 Getafe Mar 14, 2026 · replay 75% for Atlético
- Oviedo 1–0 Valencia Mar 14, 2026 · replay 44% for Oviedo
- Mallorca 2–1 Espanyol Mar 15, 2026 · replay 61% for Mallorca
- Barcelona 5–2 Sevilla Mar 15, 2026 · replay 87% for Barcelona
- Betis 1–1 Celta Mar 15, 2026 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Real Sociedad 3–1 Osasuna Mar 15, 2026 · replay 61% for Real Sociedad
- Rayo 1–1 Levante Mar 16, 2026 · drawn; replay 27% draws