Matchday 28 · La Liga 2025-26 · March 15, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Real Sociedad 3–1 Osasuna: lucky or expected?
Real Sociedad beat Osasuna 3–1, and the goals lean Real Sociedad’s way: 5 wins in 10, 2 for Osasuna, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Real Sociedad were expected to score 1.7 here and Osasuna 1.2.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Real Sociedad | 3 |
 Osasuna | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +39 Real Sociedad lucky · −39 Osasuna
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Real Sociedad win 5, 3 end level, Osasuna win 2.
- 1 RSO 1 OSA 0
- 2 RSO 2 OSA 1
- 3 RSO 2 OSA 0
- 4 RSO 3 OSA 1
- 5 RSO 3 OSA 0
- 6 RSO 1 OSA 1
- 7 RSO 1 OSA 1
- 8 RSO 0 OSA 0
- 9 RSO 1 OSA 3
- 10 RSO 0 OSA 1
The goals
Real Sociedad’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 24' | Mikel Oyarzabal (Real Sociedad, penalty) | 1–0 | +24% Real Sociedad |
| 2. 28' | Goncalo Guedes (Real Sociedad) | 2–0 | +12% Real Sociedad |
| 3. 52' | Goncalo Guedes (Real Sociedad) | 3–0 | +2% Real Sociedad |
| 4. 76' | Victor Munoz (Osasuna) | 3–1 | +1% Osasuna |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Real Sociedad win 61% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 28, 2025-26
- Alavés 1–1 Villarreal Mar 13, 2026 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Girona 3–0 Athletic Mar 14, 2026 · replay 60% for Girona
- Atlético 1–0 Getafe Mar 14, 2026 · replay 75% for Atlético
- Oviedo 1–0 Valencia Mar 14, 2026 · replay 44% for Oviedo
- Real Madrid 4–1 Elche Mar 14, 2026 · replay 81% for Real Madrid
- Mallorca 2–1 Espanyol Mar 15, 2026 · replay 61% for Mallorca
- Barcelona 5–2 Sevilla Mar 15, 2026 · replay 87% for Barcelona
- Betis 1–1 Celta Mar 15, 2026 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Rayo 1–1 Levante Mar 16, 2026 · drawn; replay 27% draws