Matchday 28 · La Liga 2025-26 · March 15, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Betis 1–1 Celta: lucky or expected?
Betis and Celta drew 1–1. Replayed from both teams’ goals this season, Betis win 5 of 10, Celta 2, and 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Betis were expected to score 1.7 here and Celta 1.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Real Betis | 1 |
 Celta Vigo | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index −12 Betis about even for the draw
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Betis win 5, 3 end level, Celta win 2.
- 1 BET 1 CEL 0
- 2 BET 2 CEL 1
- 3 BET 2 CEL 0
- 4 BET 2 CEL 0
- 5 BET 3 CEL 0
- 6 BET 2 CEL 2
- 7 BET 0 CEL 0
- 8 BET 2 CEL 2
- 9 BET 0 CEL 2
- 10 BET 1 CEL 2
The goals
Betis’s chance of winning
As low as 23% and as high as 60%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 4' | Ferran Jutglà (Celta) | 0–1 | +25% Celta |
| 2. 49' | Héctor Bellerín (Betis) | 1–1 | +33% Betis |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.
More from matchday 28, 2025-26
- Alavés 1–1 Villarreal Mar 13, 2026 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Girona 3–0 Athletic Mar 14, 2026 · replay 60% for Girona
- Atlético 1–0 Getafe Mar 14, 2026 · replay 75% for Atlético
- Oviedo 1–0 Valencia Mar 14, 2026 · replay 44% for Oviedo
- Real Madrid 4–1 Elche Mar 14, 2026 · replay 81% for Real Madrid
- Mallorca 2–1 Espanyol Mar 15, 2026 · replay 61% for Mallorca
- Barcelona 5–2 Sevilla Mar 15, 2026 · replay 87% for Barcelona
- Real Sociedad 3–1 Osasuna Mar 15, 2026 · replay 61% for Real Sociedad
- Rayo 1–1 Levante Mar 16, 2026 · drawn; replay 27% draws