Matchday 28 · La Liga 2025-26 · March 14, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Oviedo 1–0 Valencia: lucky or expected?
Oviedo beat Valencia 1–0, but the goals lean toward Valencia: 4 wins in 10 to Oviedo’s 3, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Oviedo were expected to score 1.0 here and Valencia 1.2.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Real Oviedo | 1 |
 Valencia | 0 |
What the goals say
Luck index +56 Oviedo lucky · −56 Valencia
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Oviedo win 3, 3 end level, Valencia win 4.
- 1 OVI 2 VAL 1
- 2 OVI 1 VAL 0
- 3 OVI 2 VAL 0
- 4 OVI 0 VAL 0
- 5 OVI 1 VAL 1
- 6 OVI 1 VAL 1
- 7 OVI 1 VAL 4
- 8 OVI 1 VAL 3
- 9 OVI 2 VAL 3
- 10 OVI 1 VAL 2
The goals
Oviedo’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 30' | David Costas (Oviedo) | 1–0 | +25% Oviedo |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Oviedo win 44% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 28, 2025-26
- Alavés 1–1 Villarreal Mar 13, 2026 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Girona 3–0 Athletic Mar 14, 2026 · replay 60% for Girona
- Atlético 1–0 Getafe Mar 14, 2026 · replay 75% for Atlético
- Real Madrid 4–1 Elche Mar 14, 2026 · replay 81% for Real Madrid
- Mallorca 2–1 Espanyol Mar 15, 2026 · replay 61% for Mallorca
- Barcelona 5–2 Sevilla Mar 15, 2026 · replay 87% for Barcelona
- Betis 1–1 Celta Mar 15, 2026 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Real Sociedad 3–1 Osasuna Mar 15, 2026 · replay 61% for Real Sociedad
- Rayo 1–1 Levante Mar 16, 2026 · drawn; replay 27% draws