Matchday 37 · La Liga 2025-26 · May 17, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Atlético 1–0 Girona: lucky or expected?
Atlético beat Girona 1–0, and the goals back it up: from both teams’ goals this season, Atlético win 6 of 10, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Atlético were expected to score 1.9 here and Girona 0.7.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Atlético Madrid | 1 |
 Girona | 0 |
What the goals say
Luck index +24 Atlético about even · −24 Girona
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Atlético win 6, 2 end level, Girona win 2.
- 1 ATM 2 GIR 1
- 2 ATM 1 GIR 0
- 3 ATM 3 GIR 2
- 4 ATM 2 GIR 0
- 5 ATM 3 GIR 0
- 6 ATM 4 GIR 0
- 7 ATM 0 GIR 0
- 8 ATM 1 GIR 1
- 9 ATM 1 GIR 2
- 10 ATM 1 GIR 2
The goals
Atlético’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 21' | Ademola Lookman (Atlético) | 1–0 | +24% Atlético |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Atlético win 76% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 37, 2025-26
- Levante 2–0 Mallorca May 17, 2026 · replay 57% for Levante
- Rayo 2–0 Villarreal May 17, 2026 · replay 47% for Rayo
- Elche 1–0 Getafe May 17, 2026 · replay 58% for Elche
- Athletic 1–1 Celta May 17, 2026 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Osasuna 1–2 Espanyol May 17, 2026 · replay 37% for Espanyol
- Oviedo 0–1 Alavés May 17, 2026 · replay 52% for Alavés
- Real Sociedad 3–4 Valencia May 17, 2026 · replay 40% for Valencia
- Sevilla 0–1 Real Madrid May 17, 2026 · replay 69% for Real Madrid
- Barcelona 3–1 Betis May 17, 2026 · replay 78% for Barcelona