Matchday 37 · La Liga 2025-26 · May 17, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Osasuna 1–2 Espanyol: lucky or expected?
Espanyol beat Osasuna 2–1, but the goals lean toward Osasuna: 5 wins in 10 to Espanyol’s 2, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Osasuna were expected to score 1.5 here and Espanyol 0.9.
What the goals say
Luck index +63 Espanyol very lucky · −63 Osasuna
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Osasuna win 5, 3 end level, Espanyol win 2.
- 1 OSA 1 ESP 0
- 2 OSA 2 ESP 1
- 3 OSA 2 ESP 0
- 4 OSA 2 ESP 0
- 5 OSA 3 ESP 0
- 6 OSA 1 ESP 1
- 7 OSA 1 ESP 1
- 8 OSA 1 ESP 1
- 9 OSA 1 ESP 3
- 10 OSA 3 ESP 4
The goals
Osasuna’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 60%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 27' | Carlos Romero (Espanyol) | 0–1 | +28% Espanyol |
| 2. 49' | Victor Munoz (Osasuna) | 1–1 | +33% Osasuna |
| 3. 53' | Kike (Espanyol) | 1–2 | +34% Espanyol |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Espanyol win 37% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 37, 2025-26
- Levante 2–0 Mallorca May 17, 2026 · replay 57% for Levante
- Rayo 2–0 Villarreal May 17, 2026 · replay 47% for Rayo
- Elche 1–0 Getafe May 17, 2026 · replay 58% for Elche
- Athletic 1–1 Celta May 17, 2026 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Oviedo 0–1 Alavés May 17, 2026 · replay 52% for Alavés
- Real Sociedad 3–4 Valencia May 17, 2026 · replay 40% for Valencia
- Sevilla 0–1 Real Madrid May 17, 2026 · replay 69% for Real Madrid
- Atlético 1–0 Girona May 17, 2026 · replay 76% for Atlético
- Barcelona 3–1 Betis May 17, 2026 · replay 78% for Barcelona