luckadjusted
La Liga Matchday 7 · 2026-27

Matchday 37 · La Liga 2025-26 · May 17, 2026

Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.

Real Sociedad 3–4 Valencia: lucky or expected?

Valencia beat Real Sociedad 4–3, but the goals lean toward Real Sociedad: 5 wins in 10 to Valencia’s 3, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Real Sociedad were expected to score 1.8 here and Valencia 1.3. An own goal helped Real Sociedad.

Full time

Goals
Real Sociedad 3
Valencia 4

May 17, 2026

Luck index +60 Valencia very lucky · −60 Real Sociedad

Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works

Ten replays. Real Sociedad win 5, 2 end level, Valencia win 3.

  1. 1 RSO 2 VAL 1
  2. 2 RSO 3 VAL 2
  3. 3 RSO 4 VAL 2
  4. 4 RSO 3 VAL 1
  5. 5 RSO 3 VAL 0
  6. 6 RSO 1 VAL 1
  7. 7 RSO 0 VAL 0
  8. 8 RSO 1 VAL 3
  9. 9 RSO 0 VAL 1
  10. 10 RSO 0 VAL 1

The goals

Real Sociedad’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 99%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Real Sociedad was ahead in it, below while Valencia was.
MinuteGoalScoreWin chance
1. 3' Aihen Muñoz (Real Sociedad) 1–0 +21% Real Sociedad
2. 8' Javi Guerra (Valencia) 1–1 +22% Valencia
3. 22' Hugo Duro (Valencia) 1–2 +27% Valencia
4. 60' César Tárrega (Real Sociedad, own goal) 2–2 +36% Real Sociedad
5. 63' Orri Oskarsson (Real Sociedad) 3–2 +34% Real Sociedad
6. 89' Guido Rodriguez (Valencia) 3–3 +49% Valencia
90+3' Javi Guerra (Valencia) 3–4

Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.

About these numbers

Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Valencia win 40% of replays (a draw counted as half).

All matchday 37 matches, 2025-26 · Real Sociedad · Valencia

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