luckadjusted
La Liga Matchday 7 · 2026-27

Matchday 37 · La Liga 2025-26 · May 17, 2026

Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.

Sevilla 0–1 Real Madrid: lucky or expected?

Real Madrid beat Sevilla 1–0, and the goals lean Real Madrid’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Sevilla, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Sevilla were expected to score 1.1 here and Real Madrid 2.0.

Full time

Goals
Sevilla 0
Real Madrid 1

May 17, 2026

Luck index +31 Real Madrid lucky · −31 Sevilla

Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works

Ten replays. Sevilla win 2, 2 end level, Real Madrid win 6.

  1. 1 SEV 1 RMA 0
  2. 2 SEV 2 RMA 0
  3. 3 SEV 1 RMA 1
  4. 4 SEV 1 RMA 1
  5. 5 SEV 0 RMA 4
  6. 6 SEV 0 RMA 3
  7. 7 SEV 1 RMA 3
  8. 8 SEV 1 RMA 2
  9. 9 SEV 2 RMA 3
  10. 10 SEV 1 RMA 2

The goals

Sevilla’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 60%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Sevilla was ahead in it, below while Real Madrid was.
MinuteGoalScoreWin chance
1. 15' Vinicius Junior (Real Madrid) 0–1 +26% Real Madrid

Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.

About these numbers

Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Real Madrid win 69% of replays (a draw counted as half).

All matchday 37 matches, 2025-26 · Sevilla · Real Madrid

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