Matchday 5 · Premier League 2025-26 · September 20, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Fulham 3–1 Brentford: lucky or expected?
Fulham beat Brentford 3–1, but the goals call it even: Fulham win 4 of 10, Brentford 3, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Fulham were expected to score 1.4 here and Brentford 1.3. An own goal helped Fulham.
What the goals say
Luck index +47 Fulham lucky · −47 Brentford
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Fulham win 4, 3 end level, Brentford win 3.
- 1 FUL 1 BRE 0
- 2 FUL 2 BRE 1
- 3 FUL 3 BRE 1
- 4 FUL 4 BRE 1
- 5 FUL 0 BRE 0
- 6 FUL 1 BRE 1
- 7 FUL 1 BRE 1
- 8 FUL 0 BRE 2
- 9 FUL 0 BRE 1
- 10 FUL 1 BRE 2
The goals
Fulham’s chance of winning
As low as 25% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 20' | Mikkel Damsgaard (Brentford) | 0–1 | +27% Brentford |
| 2. 38' | Alex Iwobi (Fulham) | 1–1 | +30% Fulham |
| 3. 40' | Harry Wilson (Fulham) | 2–1 | +28% Fulham |
| 4. 50' | Ethan Pinnock (Fulham, own goal) | 3–1 | +12% Fulham |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Fulham win 53% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 5, 2025-26
- Liverpool 2–1 Everton Sep 20, 2025 · replay 63% for Liverpool
- Burnley 1–1 Forest Sep 20, 2025 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Brighton 2–2 Tottenham Sep 20, 2025 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Wolves 1–3 Leeds Sep 20, 2025 · replay 63% for Leeds
- West Ham 1–2 Crystal Palace Sep 20, 2025 · replay 48% for Crystal Palace
- Man United 2–1 Chelsea Sep 20, 2025 · replay 63% for Man United
- Sunderland 1–1 Aston Villa Sep 21, 2025 · drawn; replay 30% draws
- Bournemouth 0–0 Newcastle Sep 21, 2025 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Arsenal 1–1 Man City Sep 21, 2025 · drawn; replay 27% draws