Matchday 5 · Premier League 2025-26 · September 20, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Man United 2–1 Chelsea: lucky or expected?
Man United beat Chelsea 2–1, and the goals lean Man United’s way: 5 wins in 10, 3 for Chelsea, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Man United were expected to score 2.0 here and Chelsea 1.3.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Manchester United | 2 |
 Chelsea | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +37 Man United lucky · −37 Chelsea
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Man United win 5, 2 end level, Chelsea win 3.
- 1 MUN 2 CHE 1
- 2 MUN 5 CHE 4
- 3 MUN 2 CHE 0
- 4 MUN 4 CHE 2
- 5 MUN 4 CHE 0
- 6 MUN 2 CHE 2
- 7 MUN 2 CHE 2
- 8 MUN 1 CHE 3
- 9 MUN 0 CHE 1
- 10 MUN 2 CHE 3
The goals
Man United’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 14' | Bruno Fernandes (Man United) | 1–0 | +23% Man United |
| 2. 37' | Casemiro (Man United) | 2–0 | +13% Man United |
| 3. 80' | Trevoh Chalobah (Chelsea) | 2–1 | +5% Chelsea |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Man United win 63% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 5, 2025-26
- Liverpool 2–1 Everton Sep 20, 2025 · replay 63% for Liverpool
- Burnley 1–1 Forest Sep 20, 2025 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Brighton 2–2 Tottenham Sep 20, 2025 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Wolves 1–3 Leeds Sep 20, 2025 · replay 63% for Leeds
- West Ham 1–2 Crystal Palace Sep 20, 2025 · replay 48% for Crystal Palace
- Fulham 3–1 Brentford Sep 20, 2025 · replay 53% for Fulham
- Sunderland 1–1 Aston Villa Sep 21, 2025 · drawn; replay 30% draws
- Bournemouth 0–0 Newcastle Sep 21, 2025 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Arsenal 1–1 Man City Sep 21, 2025 · drawn; replay 27% draws