luckadjusted
Premier League Matchday 5 · 2026-27

Matchday 5 · Premier League 2025-26 · September 21, 2025

Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.

Arsenal 1–1 Man City: lucky or expected?

Arsenal and Man City drew 1–1. Replayed from both teams’ goals this season, Arsenal win 4 of 10, Man City 3, and 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Arsenal were expected to score 1.6 here and Man City 1.2.

Full time

Goals
Arsenal 1
Manchester City 1

September 21, 2025

Luck index −7 Arsenal about even for the draw

Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works

Ten replays. Arsenal win 4, 3 end level, Man City win 3.

  1. 1 ARS 2 MCI 1
  2. 2 ARS 3 MCI 2
  3. 3 ARS 2 MCI 0
  4. 4 ARS 3 MCI 0
  5. 5 ARS 0 MCI 0
  6. 6 ARS 0 MCI 0
  7. 7 ARS 1 MCI 1
  8. 8 ARS 0 MCI 2
  9. 9 ARS 2 MCI 3
  10. 10 ARS 0 MCI 1

The goals

Arsenal’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Arsenal was ahead in it, below while Man City was.
MinuteGoalScoreWin chance
1. 9' Erling Haaland (Man City) 0–1 +25% Man City
90+3' Gabriel Martinelli (Arsenal) 1–1

Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.

About these numbers

Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.

All matchday 5 matches, 2025-26 · Arsenal · Man City

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