Matchday 5 · Premier League 2025-26 · September 20, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Burnley 1–1 Forest: lucky or expected?
Burnley and Forest drew 1–1. Replayed from both teams’ goals this season, Burnley win 3 of 10, Forest 4, and 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Burnley were expected to score 1.2 here and Forest 1.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Burnley | 1 |
 Nottingham Forest | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +10 Burnley about even for the draw
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Burnley win 3, 3 end level, Forest win 4.
- 1 BUR 4 NFO 3
- 2 BUR 2 NFO 1
- 3 BUR 3 NFO 0
- 4 BUR 1 NFO 1
- 5 BUR 2 NFO 2
- 6 BUR 3 NFO 3
- 7 BUR 1 NFO 4
- 8 BUR 2 NFO 4
- 9 BUR 0 NFO 1
- 10 BUR 0 NFO 1
The goals
Burnley’s chance of winning
As low as 30% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 2' | Neco Williams (Forest) | 0–1 | +24% Forest |
| 2. 20' | Jaidon Anthony (Burnley) | 1–1 | +27% Burnley |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.
More from matchday 5, 2025-26
- Liverpool 2–1 Everton Sep 20, 2025 · replay 63% for Liverpool
- Brighton 2–2 Tottenham Sep 20, 2025 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Wolves 1–3 Leeds Sep 20, 2025 · replay 63% for Leeds
- West Ham 1–2 Crystal Palace Sep 20, 2025 · replay 48% for Crystal Palace
- Man United 2–1 Chelsea Sep 20, 2025 · replay 63% for Man United
- Fulham 3–1 Brentford Sep 20, 2025 · replay 53% for Fulham
- Sunderland 1–1 Aston Villa Sep 21, 2025 · drawn; replay 30% draws
- Bournemouth 0–0 Newcastle Sep 21, 2025 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Arsenal 1–1 Man City Sep 21, 2025 · drawn; replay 27% draws