Matchday 7 · Premier League 2025-26 · October 5, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Aston Villa 2–1 Burnley: lucky or expected?
Aston Villa beat Burnley 2–1, and the goals back it up: from both teams’ goals this season, Aston Villa win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Aston Villa were expected to score 2.2 here and Burnley 0.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Aston Villa | 2 |
 Burnley | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +23 Aston Villa about even · −23 Burnley
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Aston Villa win 7, 2 end level, Burnley win 1.
- 1 AVL 1 BUR 0
- 2 AVL 2 BUR 1
- 3 AVL 2 BUR 1
- 4 AVL 2 BUR 0
- 5 AVL 3 BUR 0
- 6 AVL 4 BUR 1
- 7 AVL 4 BUR 0
- 8 AVL 1 BUR 1
- 9 AVL 0 BUR 0
- 10 AVL 1 BUR 2
The goals
Aston Villa’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 25' | Donyell Malen (Aston Villa) | 1–0 | +25% Aston Villa |
| 2. 63' | Donyell Malen (Aston Villa) | 2–0 | +10% Aston Villa |
| 3. 78' | Lesley Ugochukwu (Burnley) | 2–1 | +6% Burnley |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Aston Villa win 77% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 7, 2025-26
- Bournemouth 3–1 Fulham Oct 3, 2025 · replay 61% for Bournemouth
- Leeds 1–2 Tottenham Oct 4, 2025 · replay 41% for Tottenham
- Man United 2–0 Sunderland Oct 4, 2025 · replay 69% for Man United
- Arsenal 2–0 West Ham Oct 4, 2025 · replay 85% for Arsenal
- Chelsea 2–1 Liverpool Oct 4, 2025 · replay 54% for Chelsea
- Newcastle 2–0 Forest Oct 5, 2025 · replay 58% for Newcastle
- Wolves 1–1 Brighton Oct 5, 2025 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Everton 2–1 Crystal Palace Oct 5, 2025 · replay 61% for Everton
- Brentford 0–1 Man City Oct 5, 2025 · replay 63% for Man City